Here, we will answer questions such as whether it would be occupied, how the process would develop, what the methods of occupation would be, and what would happen if it were occupied. First, let's take a look at the history between China and Taiwan.
Period
However, with Mao's victory, Chiang Kai-shek and his supporters fled to the island of Taiwan and established their own administration. As a result of the authoritarian image given by Chiang Kai-shek's son taking his place, the people rebelled and paved the way for democracy.
Does it occupy?
As we can see, there is a party fleeing to the island which proves that there is only one China. According to surveys conducted in the country, 5.2% of the population wants complete independence, 1.3% wants reunification, and the rest want the current situation to continue.
So, what do they think in Taiwan? When the data in the Trade Map database is examined, it is seen that Taiwan, which realized $287.2 billion in imports and $346.6 billion in exports in 2020, made $311.3 billion in imports and $365.3 billion in exports in the first 10 months of 2021. Let's not forget that Taiwan's annual income is $850 billion. Because of this trade volume and Taiwan's importance in the chip industry, Taiwanese people do not think they will be invaded.
What about China? China had offered an autonomous status for Taiwan in the past, offering extensive autonomy. In addition, the exercise conducted by the Global Times, which is a China-based newspaper, was interpreted as preparation for invasion in the future. As we can see, China will choose one of two options depending on how the situation develops: peace or war. China's general view is that these are the two possibilities.
In addition, the Pentagon thinks that China will not invade Taiwan for the next two years, but Colin Kahl, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, shared his opinion: "The Pentagon's comments that it does not believe China will occupy Taiwan soon reflect the Biden administration's attempts to downplay the exercises, and officials say that military activity is more than just an indicator." So, it seems that the exercise is serious.
Actually, I think that Xi Jinping will not invade Taiwan at the moment, he will use the opportunity that comes to him before the elections to gain votes because it is understood that the US did this to Russia to bog it down in the Ukrainian-Russian war. By showing this incident to the Chinese people, it is more likely that Xi Jinping will win the election. The Pelosi move will unite China. I think that China will eventually seize Taiwan, but let's give the example of an ongoing occupation and evaluate possible situations.
Methods It Can Occupy?
Even though numerical superiority is on China's side, Taiwan is an island country and if there was a war at sea, China would definitely win but it would be an invasion. Taiwan is not a force that can declare war against China. Therefore, we will consider China's occupation situation.
First, China would besiege Taiwan mainly with its navy. But to carry out a landing, it will need to approach by ship. Does Taiwan have a ship defense missile to counter this? Yes, it does, and its name is III Hsiung Feng, or simply Feng. This missile can be guided by a smart sensor, and in addition to being supersonic, it has an operational range of 400 km. So, it would be difficult for China to bring its ships close to Taiwan, and if it chooses this option, it will suffer heavy losses. For example, if Ukraine had been able to produce such a missile today, Russia would have suffered heavy losses in its warships. So, can China not invade? It can, but in this scenario, it will suffer heavy losses. Some may ask if China will not attack from the air. It will, but even if China cannot completely stop Taiwan's air defense, it will still suffer heavy losses. So, whether attacking from the air or the sea, China must be prepared to accept losses. Now, let's assume China successfully lands troops in Taiwan. However, we need to know that Taiwan's geography means that it can only carry out landings in certain areas that Taiwan is already protecting. Therefore, even if China lands troops, it will suffer heavy losses. Ultimately, China may win, but winning at a great cost is also illogical. Let's consider other scenarios as well.
In fact, when we look at it, China's desire to inflict damage on Taiwan depends on its willingness to bring Taiwan under its own territory. China could destroy Taiwan with hypersonic missiles, but it wouldn't use them unless it was in a dire situation. (Don't compare China to Russians, who wouldn't hesitate to destroy their enemies. Chinese are non-religious and don't feel any responsibility to a creator, so to them, an enemy is an enemy. However, the response of the Chinese people will ultimately determine their actions. But, let's not forget that China is a state that has walked over its own people with tanks.) In my opinion, China is unlikely to destroy Taiwan in this scenario because it wants to capture it.
So how can China take Taiwan peacefully? China can blockade Taiwan, prevent it from trading, and cut off its internet. If this situation continues for a long time, Taiwan may fall into chaos (after all, it's not that difficult to blockade an island). While Taiwan is in turmoil, China can place its own intelligence in Taiwan and buy off politicians, soldiers, and other people. If China can realize the key points in this theory, it can start an invasion and be successful with minimal losses. But the question here is who will provide China with the chips it needs. However, we should not forget that for a country with $3.5 trillion, chip production should not be that difficult. If such invasions were to occur, we would start answering questions about what would happen to the world economy.
The World Economy As A Result Of The Occupation
Taiwan is a small country but a major producer of a wide range of products, including computers, smartphones, airplanes, electric vehicles, and more. It produces the foundation and over two-thirds of microchips, which will likely lead to a significant increase in the prices of these products.
As for whether Western countries, particularly the US, will impose sanctions on China, it is uncertain. The European Union (EU), which is China's largest trading partner with a trade volume of $828.1 billion, may be hesitant to do so. Additionally, due to COVID-19, many EU countries are selecting nearby countries with lower labor costs, such as Turkey, for production. Nevertheless, a significant portion of production will likely remain in China.
If the US were to impose sanctions on China, the prices of goods manufactured in China would rise, leading to a potential two-polar economic system. Furthermore, this situation may result in the emergence of two different internets - one belonging to China and the other to the US - instead of a unified global network. Ultimately, it is the citizens who will bear the consequences of the decisions made by their respective governments.
In conclusion, I believe that China may attack Taiwan when the West is not prepared to respond. However, I do not think the US would risk going to war with a nuclear power for the sake of Taiwan, despite President Biden's pledge to provide military support to the country.
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